Friday, January 16, 2015

Highly recommended Video: Congo and Africa's World War

If you are anything like me you are woefully ignorant of Africa and its history.  Great video to get you started.

Sunday, January 11, 2015

Moto 360 Review: Don’t buy this

I have been using the Moto 360 for several months now and thought people might be interested in my thoughts.  Overall I just can’t recommend the it.  Even if you have your heart set on an Android Wear watch, I would highly recommend waiting to see what the next generation of devices brings because right now, it just is not worth your time or money.

Here is what I think about specific aspects of the device that people have asked me about.  Please add any questions in the comments that you would like me to address.

Battery life:  Not bad but not great, depends heavily on how you use the device.  When the 360 was first released its battery was actually pretty terrible and getting through a day would sometimes be a challenge.  After a few updates this isn’t that much of an issue now.  You can easily get through a day of normal use, but don’t expect much better than that.  I don’t think battery life is a deal breaker but I do wish it were better

Screen:  Again, Not bad but not great, the circular design is nice but I still find the flat tire aspect to be a bit annoying.  The screen is bright and the auto brightness feature is actually rather useful.  Unfortunately, it is a bit low resolution but it isn’t that big a deal given what you use the device for.

Design:  I like the look of the device and it feels much better on the wrist than the Square LG G watch.  I even get the occasional compliment and questions about the watch, which is nice.  I think this is likely the best looking wearable on the market and would even say it looks better than the upcoming apple watch.

Band:  I hate the stock leather band and find it uncomfortable and terrible for things like the gym or even the rain.   

Charger: The 360 uses Qi wireless charging which is pretty cool.  The included charging cradle is nice and when you are charging you get a nice looking desk clock.  This was my first real experience with wireless charging and it has changed my views on that technology from seeing it as just a gimmick to being something that is actually useful.  Unfortunately, the charging cradle can only really be used with the 360 since no other Qi compatible device will fit.  I feel this is a missed opportunity since it would be great if the 360 came with a charger that could work with my other Qi compatible devices like my Nexus 5.

Fitness tracking:  The Moto 360 will work with Google fit and track your steps and various activities you do throughout the day.  It isn’t perfect but generally does a good job and is even smart enough to know when you are running or biking.  The biggest issue though is that Google Fit isn’t well supported yet by fitness apps and really don’t do much.

Although the 360 does have a heart rate monitor, you have to be very still if you want it to actually work.  This means it isn’t very practical for measuring your heart rate while working out, which is pretty disappointing.

You can also do sleep tracking with the device which is interesting but given the battery life of the device not terribly practical.  It does allow you to have a silent alarm where the watch does a vibrating alarm on your wrist to wake you up, which I really do like.

Serious Flaw:  The design of the plastic back plate is flawed and will start cracking near the band.  This is a pretty well known issue now but so far I have not heard Motorola made an official statement about it.  If you contact customer care and complain to the right person they usually replace it, if online report are accurate, but this is a big enough flaw that people should avoid buying something this expensive until Moto fixes it.

Design is awesome

Sucks for fitness tracking
Android Wear is still a work in progress

Conclusion: I would avoid this device and Android Wear in general right now.  The 360 gets a lot right but makes compromises with battery life, screen quality, and even processor speed, that you are just better off waiting to see if the next generation devices are better.  Overall the Android Wear platform is basically just a way to get Google Now on your wrist which just isn’t enough for me to recommend it to anyone.  Maybe in a year things will be different, but right now save your money.

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Review: The Limits of Inference without Theory by Kenneth I. Wolpin

The Limits of Inference without Theory by Kenneth I. Wolpin.  Cambridge, MA and London: The MIT Press, 2013, Hardcover ISBN: 9780262019088, $35.00.  192 pages.
This recent book attempts to contribute to the debate about the proper role that economic theory should play in empirical research.  The author, Kenneth Wolpin, is the chair of the economics department at the University of Pennsylvania, and within his lengthy research career has focused on how individuals and families make demographic and labor market decisions.  He is best known for his work in the area of  “structural microeconomics” which attempts to better integrate theory and empirical research.  The Limits of Inference without Theory brings together several of Wolpin's presentations for the Tjalling C. Koopmans Memorial Lectures at Yale in 2010 as they show how both the use of theory can assist with the ability to draw inference from empirical data and how the lack of theory can severely limit what can be inferred.
Wolpin starts by introducing the two major approaches to data inference. Calling them nonstructural and structural methods, respectively, he conveys the limitations eschewing theory can place on data inference as well as the advantages that a more ‘structural’ approach provides.  He defines the nonstructural methods as processes in which theory is not necessary for inferential analysis; an idea often exemplified by the phrase “let the data speak for itself.”  In contrast, structural methods require that in order to be able to make estimates and inferences from the data, the researcher must define a specific theory of human behavior.
        The first section of the book deals with ex-ante policy evaluation and draws heavily from his own research in the areas of wage taxes and school attendance incentives.  Here Wolpin attempts to show that with the use of theory, both researchers and policy makers will be able to use ex-ante policy evaluation, even when there has been no policy variation.  In using a structural approach, he argues, not only can you expand the types of policies considered but also provide new avenues to validate the inferences you draw.
        The next section focuses on how theory can be used to improve existing inference in research.  Wolpin begins by examining research into the impact of unemployment benefits on the duration of unemployment.  He shows that a structural approach allows for better model specification and identification of relevant variables for analysis.  He then uses an example of natural experiments that facilitate inquiry into how school attainment can influence wages. In this particular example, Wolpin demonstrates how theory allows the researcher to clarify the assumptions needed for valid interpretation of the data.  Lastly, he looks at a field experiment that researched the impact of class size on student performance and shows how theory can provide insight into how generalizable the results are to other populations.
        The proper role of theory in inferential data analysis has become more important in modern society and especially in social science research.  Societies now face a mountain of data about almost all aspects of life and are limited not by a lack of data but instead by their abilities to go beyond simple tabulation and summary statistics to find a deeper meaning from the data.  Wolpin does an admirable job of providing examples demonstrating how the strong use of theory extends what can be inferred from data, thereby making a good argument for theory’s ability to improve policy evaluation and empirical research.
        Though this inquiry clearly has strengths, it still lacks a detailed discussion of the disadvantages of the structural approach and the possible advantages of the nonstructural approach.  Wolpin addresses a variety of issues present in nonstructural approaches such as the endogeneity assumptions often found in regression-based approaches and the seemingly random addition of proxy variables without clear justification or concern for proxy variable bias.  Yet he provides no discussion of the limits of inference when using theory, nor does he discuss when a nonstructural approach might be appropriate.     
        Although Wolpin gives a clear description of the research and models he uses as examples, many are still highly technical and complicated.  This leads to another important issue not addressed in this book, that of the implicit assumptions used in many of these models, such as the assumption of individuals being rational, utility-maximizing actors.  An example of such an issue can be found in chapter 3 section 2.3, where the model used to evaluate the impact of school attainment on wages implicitly assumes individuals have only one job.  This assumption is often violated by real life data.  Wolpin weakens his argument for the structuralist approach by not adequately addressing that assumptions in structural models can be non-obvious to people not intimately familiar with such models.  A strong advantage to nonstructural approaches is that the assumptions used to make inferences from the data are explicit and easily understandable for non-technically trained parties such as policy makers.

        This book provides a clear and concise presentation of how a structural approach to data inferences can be used to improve public policy and social science research.  The ideas presented allow the reader to better understand the limitations of the nonstructural approach and how these limitations impact issues such as policy evaluation, empirical research, and even how organizations use data they have collected internally.  Wolpin has provided a variety of reasons why a structural approach to data inference should be preferred along with many examples to ponder over.  This book would be a great addition to a graduate research methodology class and could provide a solid overview of the advantages of the structural approach. It would, however, likely needed to be paired with material more skeptical of the structural approach, such as Charles F. Manski’s Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decision.  Together, such two would provide enough material to engage in a deep and spirited debate of the limits of inference both with and without theory.

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Are the States that rejected Obamacare Medicaid expansion having a worse flu season?

The CDC released an interesting map of this years flu season showing that it appears to currently be pretty bad in the south.

As you can see the south appears to be particularly hard hit this year which made me wonder how this lines up with states who rejected medicaid expansion under the ACA.  My thesis is that if more people are covered by Medicaid you should see an increase in people getting flu vaccines, since they are now essentially free.

Here is a map I found of States that rejected the Medicaid expansion

I think this does line up a bit more than chance would suggest.  Sure there are plenty of other reasons that could explain the correlation here, but I think this does merit at least a bit more research.


A friend of mine did a little more research into this and posted this on my Facebook page 

Seemed interesting enough to look into. I pulled 18+ flu-vaccination rate data from the CDC ( for 2012-2013. I used that year because California and Mississippi were missing data from the last several months of 2013-2014. The 27 states + DC that opted in had an average vaccination rate of 43.8%. The corresponding number for the 23 opt-out states was 41.8%. There is a lot of overlap in the confidence intervals, which isn't surprising given the sample sizes. Running a Mann-Whitney U test results in a U statistic of 248. Approximating with a normal distribution gives a one-sided p-value of 8.1%. So it's not overwhelming but there's some evidence that states that declined the Medicaid expansion had lower rates of flu vaccination.

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Fixing the "No TeX detected. Please install Tex before compiling." error for Rstudio on OS X

If you use RStudio on OS X you have probably seen the following error at least once

 No TeX installation detected. Please install TeX before compiling.

For some reason I have found it near impossible to google a answer for this one easily.  You usually find pages that go into a bit of detail about the issue, but no clear and easy answer on how to fix it.  Then if you do fix it, something will happen to your system that breaks the fix and you have to go searching all over again.  I am posting the fix here in the hopes that no one else will ever have to go through a frustrating search like I have had to do more times than I would like to admit.

I found the fix on an RStudio Support page (

Dave Dyer posted this

I had the same problem, and the following two symbolic links fixed it:
sudo ln -s /Library/TeX/Distributions/.DefaultTeX/Contents/Programs/texbin /usr/texbin
sudo ln -s /usr/texbin/pdflatex /usr/bin/pdflatex
Not sure that it matters, but I am using TeXShop, and didn't have to re-install anything.


Hopefully someone else will also find this useful

Friday, May 2, 2014

Soylent has shipped! The future of food is here!

Soylent has finally shipped!  For those of you who have already forgotten, Soylent is a nutritional drink that promises to be healthy, cheap, and simple yet provide everything the human body needs.

It was a bit of an internet sensation when it first was announced and was rather polarizing with some people loving the idea and wanting it immediately and others seeing is as a sign of everything that is wrong with humanity today.

Personally, I have always wanted something like this and have even experimented a bit with various nutritional drinks but they were just never cheap enough to be a viable food replacement.  I have ordered a two week supply of Soylent and will make sure to post my thoughts about it as soon as I get it.

For now here is a review from some lucky guy who already got his order

Sunday, April 6, 2014

An anti-consumerism song worth listening to, Macklemore x Ryan Lewis "WINGS" Official Music Video

I haven't been all that big a fan of Macklemore x Ryan Lewis and personally think their thriftshop song is an insult to anyone with the ability to hear.  Still the song "Same Love" was good and it is impressive to have a hip hop artist so publicly support gay marriage and equality.  Randomly I heard another song called "WINGS" on the radio and it might be the most anti-consumerism song I have heard on commercial radio, possibly ever.

I especially enjoyed the Phil Knight reference.  It is a really great song, please check it out.